The Economy
- While performing well, the U.S. economic picture is one characterized by uncertainty.
- It is uncertain what the Trump tariffs will eventually be, and whether they will, as expected, produce slower growth and higher inflation.
- It is uncertain when and if the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its policy of reducing interest rates.
- While slower growth and higher inflation is the consensus expectation for the second half, odds of a recession have declined.
- Despite the underlying uncertainty, economic activity remains largely normal.